NLP Lineage

28 April 2023 · Scale and data

Emergence mirage

Are Emergent Abilities of Large Language Models a Mirage?

R. Schaeffer, B. Miranda, S. Koyejo

Date
28 April 2023
What the date marks
arXiv submission
Kind
Research paper
Organisation
Stanford
Access
Not applicable
Other dates
NeurIPS 2023
Threads
In the guided tour
Chapter 5. Scale becomes a science
Learning phases
2. How LLMs are trained

Notable: no later milestone in the data is documented as descending from it. How levels are decided

Full summary in progress. Until then, this page shows the milestone's record from the research data.

What it changed

Before it

Sudden capability jumps with scale were widely accepted and used in safety arguments.

The problem

The jumps were measured with all-or-nothing metrics like exact match.

What it introduced

Show that the same runs look smooth under continuous metrics, so the discontinuity may be in the ruler, not the model.

Why it matters

A rare, effective correction to a dominant narrative, and a caution about how capability claims are measured.

What modern models inherit

Scepticism about benchmark discontinuities as evidence.

What came next

More careful evaluation methodology, and continuing disagreement about what emergence means.

Before and after

The milestones it descends from, and the milestones that descend from it. Work developed alongside it is not counted. Weak links are left out unless you include them.

Before: where it came from

Emergence mirage has 25 documented ancestors across 6 chapters, reaching back to Recurrent networks in 1990. Showing its direct parents and the 12 turning points among them.

Emergence mirage has 25 documented ancestors across 6 chapters, reaching back to Recurrent networks in 1990. Showing all of them.

Emergence mirage has 34 recorded ancestors, including indirect ones, across 6 chapters, reaching back to Recurrent networks in 1990. Showing its direct parents and the 12 turning points among them.

Emergence mirage has 34 recorded ancestors, including indirect ones, across 6 chapters, reaching back to Recurrent networks in 1990. Showing all of them.

  1. 2023Emergence mirageThis milestone.
  2. 2022Emergent abilitiesEmergence mirage succeeded thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  3. 2022PaLMEmergent abilities was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  4. 2022Chain of thought Turning pointEmergent abilities built directly on thisChapter 12. Thinking longer
  5. 2020MMLUEmergent abilities was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  6. 2020GShard Turning pointPaLM was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  7. 2020GPT-3 Turning pointChain of thought was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  8. 2020Scaling laws Turning pointEmergent abilities built directly on thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  9. 2019Sparse Transformer Turning pointGPT-3 built directly on thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  10. 2019GPT-2 Turning pointScaling laws was influenced by thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  11. 2019WebTextGPT-2 was influenced by thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  12. 2018GPT-1GPT-2 built directly on thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  13. 2017Transformer Turning pointScaling laws built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  14. 2017Sparse MoE Turning pointGShard built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  15. 2016Layer normTransformer built directly on this
    GPT-2 built directly on this
    Chapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  16. 2015Residual connectionsTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  17. 2015LM pretraining Turning pointGPT-1 was influenced by thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  18. 2015BPE tokenizationGPT-2 built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  19. 2015Luong attentionTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  20. 2014AdamTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  21. 2014Seq2seq Turning pointTransformer built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  22. 2014Attention Turning pointTransformer built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  23. 2014GRU / encoder-decoderAttention built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  24. 1997LSTM Turning pointSeq2seq built directly on this
    Sparse MoE built directly on this
    Chapter 1. Language as probability
  25. 1991Mixture of expertsSparse MoE built directly on thisChapter 1. Language as probability
  26. 1990Recurrent networksLSTM was influenced by thisChapter 1. Language as probability
  1. 2023Emergence mirageThis milestone.
  2. 2022Emergent abilitiesEmergence mirage succeeded thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  3. 2022PaLMEmergent abilities was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  4. 2022Chain of thought Turning pointEmergent abilities built directly on thisChapter 12. Thinking longer
  5. 2020MMLUEmergent abilities was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  6. 2020GShard Turning pointPaLM was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  7. 2020GPT-3 Turning pointChain of thought was influenced by thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  8. 2020Scaling laws Turning pointEmergent abilities built directly on thisChapter 5. Scale becomes a science
  9. 2019Sparse Transformer Turning pointGPT-3 built directly on thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  10. 2019GPT-2 Turning pointScaling laws was influenced by thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  11. 2019WebTextGPT-2 was influenced by thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  12. 2019Transformer-XLSparse Transformer was influenced by this (indirect influence)Chapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  13. 2018GPT-1GPT-2 built directly on thisChapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  14. 2018ELMoGPT-1 was influenced by this (indirect influence)Chapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  15. 2018ULMFiTGPT-1 was influenced by this (indirect influence)Chapter 4. Pretrain once, use everywhere
  16. 2017CoVeELMo was influenced by thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  17. 2017Transformer Turning pointScaling laws built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  18. 2017ConvS2STransformer was influenced by this (indirect influence)Chapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  19. 2017Sparse MoE Turning pointGShard built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  20. 2016Layer normTransformer built directly on this
    GPT-2 built directly on this
    Chapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  21. 2015Residual connectionsTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  22. 2015LM pretraining Turning pointGPT-1 was influenced by thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  23. 2015BPE tokenizationGPT-2 built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  24. 2015Luong attentionTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  25. 2014AdamTransformer was influenced by thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  26. 2014GloVeELMo built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  27. 2014Seq2seq Turning pointTransformer built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  28. 2014Attention Turning pointTransformer built directly on thisChapter 3. Attention, then only attention
  29. 2014GRU / encoder-decoderAttention built directly on thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  30. 2013word2vecELMo was influenced by thisChapter 2. Words become vectors
  31. 2011NLP from scratchELMo was influenced by thisChapter 1. Language as probability
  32. 2003Neural LMNLP from scratch was influenced by this
    word2vec was influenced by this
    Chapter 1. Language as probability
  33. 1997LSTM Turning pointSeq2seq built directly on this
    Sparse MoE built directly on this
    Chapter 1. Language as probability
  34. 1991Mixture of expertsSparse MoE built directly on thisChapter 1. Language as probability
  35. 1990Recurrent networksLSTM was influenced by thisChapter 1. Language as probability

After: what it led to

No documented descendants are recorded for Emergence mirage without weak links.

No documented descendants are recorded for Emergence mirage without weak links.

No recorded descendants are recorded for Emergence mirage.

No recorded descendants are recorded for Emergence mirage.

Direct links and their sources

Where it came from

Succeeded

What it led to

None recorded in the sources used.